Rice Production in Madagascar—Challenges to Self-Sufficiency
The Malagasy government aims to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production by 2027. In line with the national strategy on the development of rice cultivation (SNDRIII), adopted in 2023, Madagascar seeks to produce 6 million tons of rice in 2024 and to eventually reach an annual rice production of 11 million tons by 2030. To meet its goal, however, the country faces numerous challenges, including stiff competition from cheaper rice imports, chronic low productivity, and climate change. In this paper, we examine current issues faced by the rice sector in Madagascar, notably with regards to productivity. We estimate the impact of competition from rice imports on the local rice market, by exploiting historical changes to import tariffs and value-added taxes (VAT). Using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we study the maximum potential rice output, under different climate and input scenarios. Lastly, we examine possible supply-side strategies to sustainably raise future rice productivity in Madagascar, taking into consideration relevant environmental concerns, the impact of climate change as well as climate-smart agricultural practices.
A. Rice Production in Madagascar: Background and Recent Developments
1. In Madagascar, rice is the most widely consumed and produced crop, accounting for a substantial portion of total agricultural production. The average Malagasy individual consumes 153.5 kilograms of rice annually, which represents more than half of their total daily caloric intake (Table 1).2 According to the 2021 National Household Survey, 27.2 percent of households reported engaging in agricultural activity within the previous week, with 49.5 percent of such households cultivating rice paddies primarily for subsistence. Since 2002, annual rice production has increased by 76 percent, reaching 4.6 million tons in 2022. However, despite local cultivation efforts by small rural farmers, rapid population growth since 1960s has intensified Madagascar’s reliance on rice imports to meet demand. While the population grows at an annual average rate of 3 percent, rice production has only increased by an average of 2 percent per year, resulting in a persistent production gap.
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